Apply Liberally

Sweet Christ!

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 18:03:19 GMT

I didn't believe when I heard the rumors a month ago...

Smile and Pretend to Be Straight

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:13:52 GMT

I'm calling it here now: Prop. 8 will not be overturned. To this day I'm not sure how a 4-3 came from a court with six Republican appointees, but there it was. However, now that orals are over, it seems fairly clear the justices are not going to overrule the decision of the voting population, even if it involves majority sanctioned denial of a right. Thus ends the No on 8 campaign, the worst, most haphazard in California since... well, since Angelides in 2006, but that's neither here nor there. On the plus side, I'm not seeing it getting applied retroactively and thus we'll be left with the strange situation of a number of people who are not recognized as married in the state in which they were married but would be in, say, New Mexico. Freaking bizarre. It'll be a good decade or so before it can try to be overturned by voter initiative but by then hopefully the whole thing will be struck down by a SCOTUS ruling, although I doubt it. Hopefully history will not be too harsh on us for our barbarity.

On the plus side, Moreno got a really good line in with Ken Starr who, by the way, appears to have no redeeming characteristics whatsoever. It was argued that the law can't be applied retroactively because the language said marriage "is between a man and a woman" not "was" which Starr said that the authors can't be blamed for since gay marriage wasn't legal at the time of the writing. (Obvious Response: Of course they can be blamed if a law is poorly written! The justices aren't supposed correctly interpret for you a law you wrote poorly! Moron.) Anyway, at this point Moreno apparently replied "I know people can argue over what 'is' means". Heh.

Anyway, there's really only one answer, and one that I've been pushing all along. (No, not killing all those who displease me. That's later.) The state should just completely get out of the marriage business. Everything should be a civil union and marriages should only be performed by religious institutions. If your church, synagogue, whatever, decides that it will marry you, then cool. If not, the state cannot compel. People who don't want a religious ceremony can have a civil union. If we start losing money because of this somehow, we can just tax the Mormon Church. Problem solved and I can get around to starting my asexual rights movement. Once again, not a single problem on Earth that can't be solved if people would just do exactly what I say.

It's a George Harrison Freak Out!

Fri, 06 Feb 2009 05:19:20 GMT

Is it somehow off-putting that sometimes I just watch the massive chess game of international relations and get a kick out of particularly well played moves? I was reading today that Russia has set up a joint economic and military cooperation agreement with Belarus (well, no surprise there), four of the five Central Asian -stans (Turkmenistan has maintained its official neutrality), and somewhat surprisingly Armenia, which apparently has decided to throw in its lot with the dreaded Ruskie menace. Ukraine is pwn'd with the current natural gas agreement with Russia since it will either have to pay Russia the increase in gas costs or it will have to be seen as an unreliable source of energy for Europe. Georgia presently has Russian troops to its north in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to say nothing of being within easy striking distance of the TRACECA or the presence of Russian troops at the Poti Sea Port. Moldova is still stuck with the Russian military in Transdnestria and probably its best option is to simply give up that territory and try to form a union with Romania, assuming Romania would even take them. (Moldova being pretty much the new Anarchy Fun Time Zone of Europe, it seems unlikely that EU talks will be beginning any time soon.) The other day Russian just convinced Kyrgyzstan to close its airbases to US forces moving people and supplies into Afghanistan. But, don't worry, Russia will be more than happy to cooperate with the United States to provide new transport sites in Russian territory. Sometimes there's nothing one can say except "well done and good luck with the ruble".

No offense to a friend of mine, but remember your support for the "Let Ivan Go Ape-Shit" policy of five years hence? I think someone was listening. And the worst part is that I can't get "Back in the USSR" out of my head.

Ummm...

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 06:16:29 GMT

Yeah. *snort*

House Races, N-W

Mon, 03 Nov 2008 20:58:38 GMT

I had a busy weekend. Sue me.

NE-02 -- Rep. Lee Terry over Dem. Jim Esch (Rep Hold)
NV-02 -- Rep. Dean Heller over Dem. Jill Derby (Rep Hold)
NV-03 -- Dem. Dina Titus over Rep. Jon Porter (Dem +1)
NH-01 -- Dem. Carol Shea-Porter over Rep. Jeb Bradley (Dem Hold)
NJ-03 -- Dem. John Adler over Rep. Chris Myers (Dem +1)
NJ-05 -- Rep. Scott Garrett over Dem. Dennis Shulman (Rep Hold)
NJ-07 -- Rep. Leonard Lance over Dem. Linda Stender (Rep Hold)
NM-01 -- Dem. Martin Heinrich over Rep. Darren White (Dem +1)
NM-02 -- Dem. Harry Teague over Rep. Ed Tinsley (Dem +1)
NM-03 -- Dem. Ben Lujan over Rep. Daniel East (Dem Hold)
NY-13 -- Dem. Mike McMahaon over Rep. Bob Straniere (Dem +1)
NY-20 -- Dem. Kirsten Gillibrand over Rep. Sandy Treatwell (Dem Hold)
NY-21 -- Dem. Paul Tonko over Rep. Jim Buhrmaster (Dem Hold)
NY-25 -- Dem. Dan Maffei over Rep. Dale Sweetland (Dem +1)
NY-26 -- Rep. Christopher Lee over Dem. Alice Kryzan (Rep Hold)
NY-29 -- Dem. Eric Massa over Rep. Randy Kuhl (Dem +1)
NC-08 -- Dem. Larry Kissell over Rep. Robin Hayes (Dem +1)
OH-01 -- Rep. Steve Chabot over Dem. Steve Dreihaus (Rep Hold)
OH-02 -- Rep. Jean Schmidt over Dem. Victoria Wulsin (Rep Hold)
OH-07 -- Rep. Steve Austria over Dem. Sharen Neuhardt (Rep Hold)
OH-15 -- Dem. Mary Jo Kilroy over Rep. Steve Stivers (Dem +1)
OH-16 -- Dem. John Boccieri over Rep. Kirk Schuring (Dem +1)
OR-05 -- Dem. Kurt Schrader over Rep. Mike Erickson (Dem Hold)
PA-03 -- Dem. Kathy Dahlkemper over Rep. Phil English (Dem +1)
PA-04 -- Dem. Jason Altmire over Rep. Melissa Hart (Dem Hold)
PA-11 -- Rep. Lou Barletta over Dem. Paul Kanjorski (Rep +1)
SC-01 -- Rep. Henry Brown over Dem. Linda Ketner (Rep Hold)
TX-07 -- Rep. John Culberson over Dem. Michael Skelly (Rep Hold)
TX-10 -- Rep. Mike McCaul over Dem. Larry Joe Doherty (Rep Hold)
TX-22 -- Rep. Pete Olson over Dem. Nick Lampson (Rep +1)
TX-23 -- Dem. Ciro Rodriguez over Rep. Lyle Larson (Dem Hold)
VA-02 -- Rep. Thelma Drake over Dem. Glenn Nye (Rep Hold)
VA-05 -- Rep. Virgil Goode over Dem. Tom Perriello (Rep Hold)
VA-10 -- Rep. Frank Wolf over Dem. Judy Feder (Rep Hold)
VA-11 -- Dem. Gerry Connolly over Rep. Keith Fimian (Dem +1)
WA-08 -- Dem. Darcy Burner over Rep. Dave Reichert (Dem +1)
WI-08 -- Dem. Steve Kagen over Rep. John Gard (Dem Hold)
WY-AT -- Rep. Cynthia Lummis over Dem. Gary Trauner (Rep Hold)

Current Running Tally: Dem +13, Rep. +2

----

NET TOTALS:

Senate: Dem +7 (56-42-2)
House: +21 (257-178)

Also, Dems pick up the Governor's Mansion in North Carolina and Missouri while defending Washington. Oh, and that whole presidency thing, although not by quite as much as polls might lead one to believe. If Obama gets above 300, it will be just barely.

House Races, A-M

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:48:03 GMT

Just for the record, my gutsy predictions: Shays survives again in Connecticut remaining the only Republican in New England (I keep calling his demise and he keeps winning, so I'm trying reverse psychology); the Diaz-Balart brothers maintain in Florida unless the Cuban electorate has gotten a lot more moderate; Dems take ID-01 over Bill Sali, the most hated Republican west of the Mississippi; two Dem pickups in Michigan along with EPIC FAIL in Missouri.

The more I look at it, the more unsure I am. Oh well.

---

AL-02 -- Rep. Jay Love over Dem. Bobby Bright (Rep Hold)
AL-05 -- Dem. Parker Griffith over Rep. Wayne Parker (Dem Hold)
AK-AL -- Dem. Ethan Berkowitz over Rep. Don Young (Dem +1)
AZ-01 -- Dem. Ann Kirkpatrick over Rep. Sydney Ann Hay (Dem +1)
AZ-03 -- Rep. John Shadegg over Dem. Bob Lord (Rep Hold)
AZ-05 -- Dem. Harry Mitchell over Rep. David Schweikert (Dem Hold)
AZ-08 -- Dem. Gabrielle Giffords over Rep. Tim Bee (Dem Hold)
CA-04 -- Dem. Charles Brown over Rep. Tom McClintock (Dem +1)
CA-11 -- Dem. Jerry McNerney over Rep. Dean Andal (Dem Hold)
CA-50 -- Rep. Brian Bilbray over Dem. Nick Leibham (Rep Hold)
CO-02 -- Dem. Betsy Markey over Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (Dem +1)
CT-04 -- Rep. Chris Shays over Dem. Jim Himes (Rep Hold)
FL-08 -- Rep. Ric Keller over Dem. Alan Grayson (Rep Hold)
FL-13 -- Rep. Vern Buchanan over Dem. Christine Jennings (Rep Hold)
FL-16 -- Rep. Tom Rooney over Dem. Tim Mahoney (Rep +1)
FL-21 -- Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart over Dem. Raul L. Martinez (Rep Hold)
FL-24 -- Dem. Suzanne Kosmas over Rep. Tom Feeney (Dem. +1)
FL-25 -- Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart over Dem. Joe Garcia (Rep Hold)
GA-08 -- Dem. Jim Marshall over Rep. Rick Goddard (Dem Hold)
GA-12 -- Dem. John Barrow over Rep. John Stone (Dem Hold)
ID-01 -- Dem. Walt Minnick over Rep. Bill Sali (Dem. +1)
IL-08 -- Dem. Melissa Bean over Rep. Steve Greenberg (Dem Hold)
IL-10 -- Rep. Mark Kirk over Dem. Dan Seals (Rep Hold)
IL-11 -- Dem. Debbie Halvorson over Rep. Martin Ozinga (Dem +1)
IL-14 -- Dem. Bill Foster over Rep. Jim Oberweis (Dem Hold)
IL-18 -- Rep. Aaron Schock over Dem. Colleen Callahan (Rep Hold)
IN-03 -- Rep. Mark Souder over Dem. Mike Montegano (Rep Hold)
IN-09 -- Dem. Baron Hill over Rep. Mike Sodrel (Dem Hold)
KS-02 -- Dem. Nancy Boyda over Rep. Lynn Jenkins (Dem Hold)
KS-03 -- Dem. Dennis Moore over Rep. Nick Jordan (Dem Hold)
KY-02 -- Rep. Brett Guthrie over Dem. David Boswell (Rep Hold)
KY-03 -- Dem. John Yarmuth over Rep. Anne Northup (Dem Hold)
LA-06 -- Dem. Don Cazayoux over Rep. Bill Cassidy (Dem Hold)
MD-01 -- Rep. Andrew Harris over Dem. Frank Kratovil (Rep Hold)
MI-07 -- Dem. Mark Schauer over Rep. Tim Walberg (Dem +1)
MI-09 -- Dem. Gary Peters over Rep. Joe Knollenberg (Dem +1)
MN-02 -- Rep. John Kline over Dem. Steve Sarvi (Rep Hold)
MN-03 -- Dem. Ashwin Madia over Erik Pailsen (Dem +1)
MN-06 -- Dem. Elwyn Tinklenberg over Rep. Michele Bachmann (Dem +1)
MS-01 -- Dem. Travis Childers over Rep. Greg Davis (Dem Hold)
MO-06 -- Rep. Sam Graves over Dem. Kay Barnes (Rep Hold)
MO-09 -- Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer over Dem. Judy Baker (Rep Hold)

Current Running Tally: Dem +11, Rep +1

Tear it apart.

Godbama

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 08:33:09 GMT

So, let's be frank--Obama is buying the election. I mean, good for him. That's how one wins elections nowadays in this country and I don't expect that to change anytime in the near future, so I don't blame him. However, if you're going to become the first candidate, so far as I know, to turn down public financing since Watergate, you should have a better excuse than "the other side is better exploiting the system, so I'll just say fuck the system and spend like crazy." Or at least if you're going to say it, you should say it like that.

I'm only thinking of this now because why in the name of all that is good and holy is he spending millions to buy a half-hour of airtime on seven television networks? Does he think we don't know who he is or something? Trust me, we've heard of you. Apparently he noticed how well this strategy worked for Ross Perot. I can't see any possible benefit except annoying the crap out of people. (Leftists don't seem to get that annoying people doesn't get them on your side--I'm looking at you striking union members who march right down the middle of Market St. at 5pm!) Also, I think I'm annoyed because I gave them a small amount of money to pay for the damn things. (I tried to request that my money go to Democratic senate races since Obama has enough damn money, but, much like the IRS, I get no option in where my money goes.) What can I say, I wanted that nifty Obama/Biden t-shirt. Yeah.

Anyway, all that aside, I really just posted so I could put up this picture which, frankly, I find more than a little messianic. Certainly not the campaign's fault, but it still freaked me out. Bless the AP and their ever-ready cameras.

He looks like either the Rapture or Bolloywood music is about to start. Hopefully both. Somewhat relatedly, I found a variant on one of these in a bathroom the other day. It amused me.

First half of my House predictions tomorrow after I sober up a bit.

Senate Bets

Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:36:37 GMT

It's that time again. In a volatile election cycle, I've been trying to put the predictions/bets off for as long as possible, but I think anything short of a week before is overkill. That being said, my Senate list and vague reasoning, in order of likelihood that I'll be wrong:

Minnesota -- Rep. Norm Coleman over Dem. Al Franken (Rep Hold)

The whole bloody year has been back and forth between these two and as recently as last week I was prepared to call it for Franken and would not be in the least surprised if I turn out to be wrong. However, I was expecting Barkley to pull substantially more support away from Coleman, but he appears to be pulling about equally, perhaps because Franken has run a really lousy campaign. Still, as I say, wouldn't be surprised if this one turned out wrong.

North Carolina -- Dem. Kay Hagen over Rep. Elizabeth Dole (Dem. +1)

That fact that this race is competitive at all is a sign of the climate this year round. Kay Hagen was actually the Democrats fifth choice against Dole because no one wanted to be the sacrificial lamb. But apparently with the help of the most effective election commercial this side of "Daisy" and having Obama at the top of the ticket has given her a shot. I'm calling this one for the Dems if only because between the possibility of an Obama victory, a gubernatorial victory, and a very competitive House race in NC-08 (and one less so in NC-10) the national party has thrown enough money in to pick up something.

Alaska -- Dem. Mark Begich over Rep. Ted Stevens (Dem +1)

I was hoping a jury verdict would be back in time for this, but it's not, so I'll call it for Begich. Regardless of the outcome, Stevens ended up looking pretty awful and out of it on the witness stand and between him and Young, the two old, decrepit Republican legislators are not looking all that appealing this year.

Oregon -- Dem. Jeff Merkley over Rep. Gordon Smith (Dem. +1)

One of the two moderate Republican senators who should have done a reasonable job fending off Democratic attacks, sometime around August Smith's poll numbers plummeted and now in a left-leaning state like Oregon will be this year, he seems set to lose.

Mississippi -- Rep. Roger Wickers over Dem. Ronnie Musgrove (Rep Hold)

Again, the fact that this race was even a possible victory is weird, and Musgrove was about as good a candidate as the Dems could field, it's still Mississippi.

Georgia -- Rep. Saxby Chambliss over Dem. Jim Martin (Rep Hold)

Like most everyone with a brain, I'm still irked about Cleland and would have like to have seen Chambliss beat down, but unfortunately Obama began picking up steam in the state too late, and Martin himself began climbing the polls too late, to encourage much investment in his campaign.

Kentucky -- Rep. Mitch McConnell over Dem. Bruce Lunsford (Rep Hold)

Revenge for Daschle would be sweet, but most rural Kentucky voters will saw their arm off before they vote for a Democrat.

New Hampshire -- Dem. Jeanne Shaheen over Rep. John Sununu (Dem +1)

Sununu's been projected to lose since the beginning of the year, so this is pretty much just a formality. He can always fly out on his private Concorde, get a haircut, and buy some stamps with dad, though.

Louisiana -- Dem. Mary Landrieu over Rep. John Kennedy (Dem Hold)

Bet Kennedy's real glad he switched parties for this now...

New Mexico -- Dem. Tom Udall over Rep. Steven Pierce (Dem +1)

New Mexico is going to be a Democratic haven this year. Obama will win the state, Udall will win the Senate seat in a cakewalk, and there's a solid chance all three House seats will be Dem.

Colorado -- Dem. Mark Udall over Rep. Bob Schaffer (Dem +1)

Again, Schaffer's been set to lose since he was nominated. No surprises here.

Virginia -- Dem. Mark Warner over Rep. Jim Gilmore (Dem +1)

Gilmore had a better shot at the Presidency. When John Warner is thinking about supporting the Democrat, whom he defeated in 1996, you're pretty much screwed.

Maine -- Rep. Susan Collins over Dem. Tom Allen (Rep Hold)

Why Allen gave up a cushy, safe House seat to run against a moderate, sane, Republican Senator in a moderate, swing voting state I will never understand.

Net Results: Dem +7, Dem-56, Rep-42, Ind-2

A word of advice: Do NOT drop Lieberman. Let him go to all the conventions he wants, no one listens to him on a national level anyway. But when the Democratic majority drops to closer to a 50/50 split, which might be in 2 years, you'll want him on domestic committee assignments rather than becoming the vote that means Biden doesn't break ties. You have been warned.

At Least it Means to Be a Joke...

Sun, 12 Oct 2008 04:10:31 GMT

So, I haven't posted on this thing, not because I'm not following developments. I just find this entire presidential election to be an incredibly long, drawn-out inside joke. I'm hoping on the 3rd McCain and Obama will call a joint press conference to say "just kidding!" And then we'll appoint Bill Richardson President-for-Life. He's Hispanic, and those people seem to have a natural predilection towards that system of government. (Offensiveness is fun.) While one day I might comment on my prediction for the upcoming congressional elections, and, hell, maybe even the electoral college, that's not what I've come for now.

Y'see, here in wacky San Francisco, nationally despised bastion of American liberalism, we have a proposition on the city ballot. Actually, we have 22, because we just love democracy oh so much. Anyway, one that's been known for a while, Prop. R, is the initiative to name our water treatment facility by Ocean Beach the George W. Bush Sewage Plant. Yup. I was expecting that someone would pen a missive in the sample ballot opposing the measure because, well, it's silly. (Of course, unlike most American politics, it's meant to be silly.) Order of priority in printing the opponent's argument for a measure goes: Board of Sups or member of same; the Mayor; any bona fide association of citizens; combination of voters; individual voter. It appears to have fallen on the last. Here is their charming and erudite back and forth for those of you not living in the City:

---

Argument in Favor:

Just as France presented the Statue of Liberty as its gift to the nation, the citizens of San Francisco may now bestow their own special gift to the country by renaming our award winning waste water treatment plant in honor of outgoing President George W Bush. We think this is a fitting memorial for a truly outstanding Commander-in-Chief. On matters ranging from diplomacy to fiscal and environmental stewardship, no other President has had such a dramatic impact on the country and the Constitution in such a short time. Most presidents wait years or decades to receive their memorial airport or highway. We think President Bush deserves immediate recognition for his eight years of public service.

Critics of this measure point out that the initiative unfairly maligns the talented and hard working staff at the award-winning plant or that it memorializes an administration best forgotten. To this we simply say that those who forget history are condemned to repeat it. President Bush has left us with a gigantic mess, and that this facility symbolizes the city's deft ability to clean up its share of the financial and diplomatic mess left in this administration's wake. It will also become the world's first presidential sewage plant, a potential tourist attraction, and therefore an opportunity for the dedicated plant workers to educate visitors about this essential and heretofore unknown public works. This measure will have a minimal fiscal impact and may increase tourist traffic to the plant, Zoo, and nearby attractions in southwest San Francisco, creating yet another quirky must-see destination along with our cable cars, Haight St, and Beach Blanket Babylon.

Fellow San Franciscans, we urge you to vote Oui! On November 4th.

Brian McConnell
Chairman, Presidential Memorial Commission of San Francisco

---

Response to Argument in Favor:

While discussing the Russian incursion into South Ossetia on ABC's "This Week", conservative George Will referred to Russia as a "primitive" country. This reference is puzzling in light of Russia having produced geniuses like Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, Tchaikovsky and Prokofiev. To describe an entire nation in such terms seems an extreme statement. (Would the show's host, George Stefanopoulos, have remained silent had Will similarly impugned the Greek nation?) Yet this remark should be understood in light of Will's unspoken desire to ride up Brokeback Mountain with W.

Maybe Vladimir Putin attacked Georgia because he hates freedom. Or perhaps Putin invaded because he had to assist his homies who were under attack, just as the Israelis retaliate whenever their people are shot at or shelled. What is not in question is that Putin had exposed Bush as an impotent buffoon: even were John "we are all Georgians" McCain, Will's and ABC's preferred candidate, to win this year's election, Russia will not be expelled from the G-8. No other country in NATO is going to send its troops to South Ossetia. Like other neoconservatives, Will and his employers at ABC are enraged that Putin has punk'd their beloved Bush. Rather than acknowledge that reality, they prefer to disparage the Russians as a bunch of primitives.

San Franciscans, take note: don't vote for this measure just because you're upset that Midland's half-wit won the last election. That's the kind of statement that Will and the neocons would make. Such name-calling is really... primitive.

Colin V. Gallagher

---

Argument Opposed:

As of this writing, 4139 servicemen and women have been killed since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The number of Iraqis who have been killed as a result of the invasion and occupation of their country cannot be measured. The proponents of this measure may consider the Bush Administration to be a joke. However, the consequences of the decision to invade are not a laughing matter for families of those who have died during the past five years. This measure, whatever its intentions, disrespects them.

I agree that the invasion of Iraq is the worst foreign policy blunder in the history of the US. I also agree that Bush has been the most ignorant man to ever occupy the office of President. To call him the worst President since Warren Harding is to insult the memory of Harding, who at least did not enter this country into any unnecessary wars.

Moreover, the federal debt at the end of this Administration totals over $9 trillion, not including the recent guarantees extended to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose liabilities may constitute an additional $5 trillion to be paid by the U.S. taxpayer. Aside from Iraq, Bush's legacy will be the addition of a prescription drug benefit of at least $1.2 trillion without any mechanism for funding the new Medicare entitlement. Bush's minions had specifically ordered the civil service from disclosing the true cost of the benefit from Congress before it had been voted upon. Maybe it would be more appropriate to name the local bankruptcy court or a consumer credit counseling center after Bush?

Besides, if we name the local sewage plant after Bush, then what's left to name after Jesse Helms?

Colin V. Gallagher

---

Argument Against Opposing Argument:

Fellow citizens, Mr. Gallagher's opposing argument does as good a job as any we've heard at highlighting why George W. Bush deserves this unique civic tribute. Since we can't say it better ourselves we'll share this haiku, submitted by one of the many supporters of this effort from San Francisco, around the country and abroad:

Need Bush memor’l?
Sewage plant available
How appropriate

Brian McConnell, Chairman
Presidential Memorial Commission of San Francisco

This is a strange, strange place. Heh.

Iowana Grow Up

Thu, 03 Jan 2008 11:05:42 GMT

Yeah, so, two Republican holds in the specials a month ago. Big deal. I've been wrong before. For example, a few months ago I wrote off McCain and, well...

No fucking way.

That's about all I can say. Last nationwide poll has McCain at 22%, Giuliani at 20%, and Huckabee at 17% with a 5% margin of error. Where the hell did that come from? Neck and neck in New Hampshire with Romney at 29%? I know not even what to say.

Before New Hampshire, however, I suppose something about Iowa is in order since that whole mishegoss should be kicking off in a few hours here. First, Chris Dodd would be lucky to get fifth place. He picked up his damn family of two young kids and moved them half way across a continent so that he could finish fifth. Which he won't even get to do because of Iowa's weird ass system. Dang. Anyway, I guess my point is that Dodd is gone after Iowa, not that it really matters all that much anyway. Word has it he's also not running for re-election in 2010, so maybe all the Lamont fans can try again. Biden is actually polling better than Richardson nationally--not that that says a whole lot--and I expect both of them to hold out still until Ultimate Tuesday of Ultimate Destiny, for what it's worth. Personally, I say that in Biden and Richardson, you've got yourself a VP and Secretary of State. I personally still think Richardson will attract more votes to a ticket (Hispanic, from the increasingly Democratic West, etc.), but I wouldn't object at all to a Biden VP nod. On the Republican side, Thompson says he needs second place in Iowa. He won't get it. Frankly, he'd be lucky to get third at this point. If he's a man of his word, I presume he will drop out within a week, especially if he's below third. Otherwise, wait for him to lose in South Carolina. Duncan Hunter is going to... I have absolutely no idea what to say about this man. Huckabee said he'd make a good Sec. of Defense. Okie doke then. Alan Keyes. See, I can just say the man's name and you want to laugh!

So, Iowa. On the Republican side, I'm calling for Huckabee. Romney's support has flat-lined in Iowa and nationwide. He's milked all the votes he's going to get and he's stuck. While he's obviously still got a chance, Huckabee's got the momentum and is seen as more viable nationwide. If McCain is able to take it in New Hampshire, Romney is finished. He'll stick around until UTUD but he would be essentially dead. On the Democratic side, Clinton would be the winner under a standard system, but with the wacky format of the Iowa caucuses, the winner will ultimately be Obama. This will send him into New Hampshire with a victory under his belt and make the next month extremely interesting. If Edwards really dislikes Clinton as much as he seems to, he will drop out immediately and endorse Obama as the chosen "anyone-but-Hillary" candidate. If he's running as basically an egotistical schmuck then he'll hold out. Since it would have made sense to do that about a month ago, it may well be the latter. In short, it all gonna be crazy pretty soon.

Man, this stuff would be fun as hell if it didn't actually put someone in charge of the most powerful nation on Earth. Oh well.

Also, seriously, unrelated to the presidential elections and really irrelevant from a strategic point of view since Jackie Speier is going to win the seat easily... but I'm going to miss Tom Lantos a lot, even if he has been a total putz of the Iraq issue for almost two decade. He's still a cool old coot.

Forgit about it

Mon, 10 Dec 2007 22:19:21 GMT

Alternate Title: "Latta Luck"

So generally I am not one to make outlandish predictions as I am a rather conservative fellow by nature. But, what the heck, it always looks like fun when other people do it, so...

Tomorrow in the two special elections, Democrats will pick up at least one seat. Most probably Robin Weirauch in OH-05. Not a Democratic stronghold to say the least, but Bob Latta had to go through an awful primary to get the spot and Weirauch share of vote increased from 33% to 43% between the 2004 and 2006 election cycles. Both parties have spent insane amounts of money here and voter turnout will most likely be rather low. Since Latta is the assumed victor, Weirauch supporters are more likely to make the effort to get out and vote, since some of Latta's may see his victory as a foregone conclusion. So, I am calling Robin Weirauch tomorrow in OH-05 by the narrowest of margins. And, much like the DNC covers its own ass, even if she gets close it represents Democratic competitiveness next year in unlikely districts. As for VA-01, I am less optimistic. Philip Forgit is a strong candidate and an Iraq war veteran in a heavily military district, but VA-01 is too Republican and Rob Whittman has a clear advantage. While more likely than, say, the Second Coming occurring tomorrow and special elections are always strange, Whittman is likely to retain the seat for Republicans. But, again, if Forgit makes a strong showing in a very Republican district, the DNC can spin that around to show the competitive environment of 2008. L-rd knows the Republicans did it enough with MA-05.

In other news, Chavez pulled out in the New Mexico Senate, leaving a straight shot for Udall and an awful, awful primary for Pearce and Wilson, increasing the odds of Democratic pickup; Democrats lost their top tier candidates in the Kentucky Senate and IL-18 races, so move those to safe GOP; and Nancy Pelosi may, further evidence pending, now get to join Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al. as technically a war criminal. While this has lots of various repercussions for a lot of reasons, the one that affects me most personally is next year it'll just give Cindy Sheehan something else to yell loudly about in my neighbourhood. Ugh.

I come from a land down under!

Sat, 24 Nov 2007 19:16:56 GMT

So, please, allow me to say...

pwned!

Better update your sign there, Johnny boy. One can only hope this portends good things for the future. Obviously, the victory of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party is important and awesome for a number of reasons, not the least of which being government funding on the use of earwax as an unlimited food supply. But, more important than even that, is the fact that once again it prove that when in doubt, break for the hotter candidate. I'm not really sure if Kevin Rudd is hotter than John Howard--it's probably an even break--but I shall tell you for free that Julia Gillard is hotter than Mark Vaile any day of the week and twice on Sunday. So, no doubt, credit for the Labor Party victory should go squarely to Ms. Gillard and I hope she proves an able deputy PM. And also, I'd totally hit that deliberately barren arse for an Australian dollar any time. Ms. Royal must have been some sort of freak anomaly.

Now with variable hair!

Going to Carolina in My Mind

Thu, 22 Nov 2007 03:19:13 GMT

First off, everyone send Jim Webb a nice Thanksgiving card. Maybe in two years he and Mark Warner can hang out a play Laser Tag in an empty Senate chamber, although in two years hopefully there won't be need for such procedural maneuvering. Bringing up the soon to be senator from the Commonwealth of Virginia, however, gives me a chance to just jump right into my oh so entertaining political "analysis", which I haven't done for a while due to the exodus of other informed and erudite politics junkies from the San Francisco Bay Area. (Damn you, Chuck!) I'm thinking of putting up a CL ad: "Seeking partners for annoying, far too detailed, political discourse. 420 friendly." But I digress.

Many things are going to change in the U.S. Senate come January 2009 and they shall all be awesome. The Republicans have ten more seats up than the Democrats and this, combined with retirements and weak freshmen and all sorts of other rubbishy things, makes an increase in the Democratic majority pretty much assured. The only question at this point is how big.

Virginia Republicans have decided to replace the retiring moderate John Warner with the insane erstwhile Presidential wanna-be Jim Gilmore. (The less insane Rep. Tom Davis gave the Republicans a better shot, but, hey, if the state GOP wants to commit political suicide via convention rather than primary, that's their business.) On the other hand, Democrats have cleared the field for popular former governor Mark Warner who will pretty much mop the floor with also former governor Gilmore. The question isn't whether Warner is going to win--of course he is--but whether having him near the top of the ballot will help Hillary in the increasingly swing Virginia. I doubt it, but it'll be interesting to watch.

In Colorado, Wayne Allard would have had a helluva a fight next year, so he pretty much decided to retire instead. This leaves the liberal Rep. Mark Udall facing the conservative former Rep. Bob Schaffer, fresh from his loss in the Republican senate primary four years ago. With a Senate and House pick up in the otherwise abysmal 2004 cycle, plus the gubernatorial victory and another House pick up in 2006, Colorado is fertile ground for more Democrat advances. While no House seats seem competitive--some see hope in the Betsy Markey challenge to the crazier-than-a-shithouse-rat Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04, but, especially having just been through that part of the country, I can't concur--this Senate seat seems like a likely, if hard fought, Democratic pick-up.

Another Senate retirement in New Mexico, this time Pete Domenici, who really wants people to stop asking him about some phone calls he made a few years ago. Running instead is Rep. Heather Wilson of NM-01 who also would really like you stop asking about similar calls a few years ago. (Fortunately for both of them, most people already have.) Running against her is the other Republican House member, Rep. Steve Pearce of NM-02. I have no idea who will get the nomination but regardless, they will probably face sole Democratic House member Tom Udall of the illustrious LDS Udalls of the West. (Yeah, that guy in Colorado is his cousin. They breed like Kennedys out here.) Udall has a pretty good shot and an even better one if he can avoid an annoying primary. Hence, I would like to join the many who are asking Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chaves to PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEEEEEASE FOR THE LOVE OF G-D DROP OUT OF THE SENATE RACE AND RUN FOR THE OPEN NM-01 SEAT!!!! If you don't, you'll get no sympathy from me when Patricia Madrid runs again and you're left with no open seat to aim for. Anyway, New Mexico seems likely to be another good Western shot at a Senate pickup, especially if their elected by a 2/3 majority governor is on a presidential ticket. Ahem.

I'm really not sure how John Sununu won in New Hampshire 2002 in the first place--oh, wait, that's right, he cheated--but in 2008 things are, at least for now, looking good that Jeanne Shaheen will deliver a somewhat delayed beatdown. To console himself, maybe John Jr. can call up dad and they can take a round the world flight for rare stamps. Or McCain might still nominate him for the VP seat... you know, assuming McCain breaks low double digits again and Sununu's approval rating gets about 50%...

Those are the biggies. A few races could open up, of course. Colemamn is rather vulnerable in Minnesota, but the Dems still have to pick between Al Franken and Mike Cersi. (That's so weird to type...) Mary Landrieu is the only really vulnerable Democrat in the country now that much of her voting base is underwater, and accursed turncoat John Kennedy is a strong challenger. Still, she seems poised to pull through yet again. Tim Johnson might also be vulnerable in South Dakota if the Republicans ever find a candidate. Gordon Smith in Oregon and Susan Collins in Maine are probably non-starters, both being centrist Republicans in left-leaning, but weird, states. Nebraska started vaguely hopeful for about three seconds but now the seat is Johanns to lose. McConnell would have to screw up bad lose in Kentucky. If Ted Stevens retires, Alaska is an easy Republican hold. In short, at least with the current political climate, I'm calling for four Democratic pick ups and 55-45 split in the Senate. pwned!

In national news, I have absolutely no damn clue who's going to get the Republican Presidential nomination. And neither do you. And anyone who tells you they have even vague idea is just making stuff up. At this point no one left is dropping out before 5 February, especially since there's only a month between Iowa and the Ultimate Tuesday of Ultimate Destiny (tm). Romney is ahead in Iowa, but Huckabee is going to finish at least second and may take the whole thing while Thompson, Guiliani, and McCain struggle for third. Romney also leads in New Hampshire, but a second place finish for McCain next door to Romney's turf will keep him afloat. Guiliani is ahead in Michigan, while native son Romney could use a win to keep up momentum. (He'll get at least second.) Nevada is more important to Dems than Republicans and campaigning has barely started there. Florida, for the moment, is locked up for Guiliani.

The key for every Republican is on the road to South Carolina. Guiliani needs to prove that Southern conservatives will vote for him. Romney needs to prove that Evangelical Christians who think he's a cult member will vote for him. McCain needs to prove that *someone* somewhere will vote for him. The two biggest potential winners and potential losers are Thompson and Huckabee. Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee on the 5th are essential to Thompson's "Southern Strategy" and a loss in South Carolina, about as South as one gets, derails him, possibly unrecoverably. Victory means anywhere between three and six state wins on the 5th. Huckabee is a southern social conservative--a Baptist preacher, for G-d's sake!--and the South Carolina electorate are his people. A win in Iowa increases his chances of success. A win in both Iowa and South Carolina vaults him to first-tier and near the head of the pack going into Super Duper Tuesday. A loss and he's out by 6 February after (maybe) winning Arkansas. Of course, he's near the top of VP candidates, so he's hardly out for good. Expect Romney to strongly consider him and possible Guiliani to do so as well, although I'd be somewhat surprised to see Huckabee get behind Guiliani. We'll see how he does against Bill Richardson in the VP debates, since if Hillary is paying Richardson will be her running mate.

A Shiny Nickel to the Best Iowa Pun

Sat, 11 Aug 2007 00:13:51 GMT

With Ames a-comin', I figured I'd do some predictions. First off, let's just accept that Romney wins. I mean, c'mon. At this point, especially since all the front runners except Romney are skipping, Ames is really more important for weeding out the lower dregs of the second and bottom tier candidates. That being the case, I offer a quick look at the losers and winners of tomorrow's straw poll as best as I can tell. Moving backwards...

6 (and last) -- Duncan Hunter. I still have no idea why this man's running. Hopefully he'll leave soon. Seems to be vaguely popular in South Carolina though.

5 -- Ron Paul. For the 2% of wack job libertarian style Republicans.

4 -- Tommy Thompson. Following the Straw Poll, will official drop out, thinning the field. Yay! No more specifying Thompsons!

3 -- Tom Tancredo. Unlike to leave the field yet until he can outdo himself and find a more outrageous thing to say than "let's bomb Mecca and Medina". Then he'll run for Colorado Senator.

2 -- Sam Brownback. Sammy never picked up the way I thought he might. Maybe the Catholic thing? The Protestants *do* hate it when you leave them to join the anti-Christ. Soon he'll have to drop out and wait four more years since he fits in the same niche as our big victor in Iowa...

1 -- Mike Huckabee. His evolution hatin' ass has been doing surprisingly well considering. Ames will move him into the Bill Richardson spot on the GOP side where eventually he will duke it out with McCain for the fourth place position.

In a week, McCain and Huckabee will official be the second tier. I shabbat now.

"Did I Approve This Post? You Bet Yer Ass."

Fri, 06 Jul 2007 18:24:29 GMT

With about seven months until the newly formed Mega-Ultra Tuesday (not to be confused with Mega-Ultra Chicken) it may be presumptive to start talking about all the candidates who are going to drop up wit' a quickness, but then again this is no ordinary election. It's got Libertarians and crazy old guys and Magic Negroes, for one thing. However, there are presently nineteen major party candidates in the running and, quite frankly, it's getting too confusing. I'm afraid I'm going to have to insist that some of you leave.

Democrats: It's going to take a bit longer than the Republican side for a number of reasons. No one new is going to jump in the race--Al Gore is having too much fun gettin' high at the St. Regis, and good for him; if he gets a break in his schedule, I'd be happy to buy him a couple beers sometime at that dive bar on Geary--there is no even vaguely primary or caucus-like vote before the new year, and none of the lowest tier candidates are likely using the run as a platform for running for a different office. As such, I would not be surprised if everyone actually *does* hold on until February. Kucinich has no super-delegates and I don't think that particularly bothers him. Maybe he'll get a chance to make a few more of those commercials with Danny Glover sounding ominous. And, when all else fails, he's got the hottest spouse of any of the candidates. He can always take solace in that.

Mike Gravel is insane, although it seems like a harmless insane more or less. Also, he's made the strangest and, therefore, coolest ad of the entire campaign season, possibly any campaign season. It also cost about $2.37 to make, so he's not going anywhere. This having cover all the third tier candidates, we're left with Joe Biden and Chris Dodd in the lower levels of the second tier. Both are rich white guys who are senators from small states and no one knows anything about them. Woot. But, this is the last time for both of them that they can even make a shot at it. (By 2012 they'll be too old and if a Democrat wins next year by 2016 they'll be waaaaaaaay too old.) Dodd has slightly more super-delegates (5 vs. 2... hot damn...) and banged Princess Leia, which is pretty cool. Biden is polling higher, although I couldn't tell you why. Maybe because he tried in 2004 so four people still remembered him? Got me. Anyway, both their home states are in the Super Duper Tuesday so if they can keep even a slight amount of fund raising going into the New Year, they'll stick around until 5 February. After that, they're the first two to go. If after Biden and Dodd withdraw he can reach above 15% Richardson will stay in for a while longer, otherwise he's out by the end of February. Still, he's got a shot at a VP nod.

Republican: Oy, where to begin. Fred Thompson is now in in everything but name. Leaving that aside, the Ames Straw Poll is up in a month and Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson are all skipping. Tommy Thompson--yes, your favourite Jew-lovin' gay hater with the seemingly never ending cold and mine--says that Ames is a must win since he's pretty much lived in Iowa since last year. It's so not happening. Tommy Thompson is out by mid-August which is good, because I'm getting tired of specifying which Thompson I mean. (Of course, maybe he'll have a huge victory because everyone at the poll will be confused about which Thompson they're voting for.) Gilmore says he didn't just drop out of the race, but he did. He might try to run for senate in Virginia. Likewise Huckabee in Arkansas. Also likewise Tancredo in Colorado. Once the senate races in those three states go into full swing, there's a good chance the field for the GOP candidate will thin down a bit real fast. I have absolutely no idea why Duncan Hunter is running. He can think he's going to win, right? I can't imagine he's setting himself up to run against Boxer in 2010. I'm baffled. Anyway, there's a good chance he'll just drop out before February just because, well, no one knows why he's running. If Brownback and Paul can afford to, they'll stay in until February. McCain will refuse to die until he's bankrupt or assassinated. He might make it to the end of February and beyond assuming a bounce back of some sort, which seems doubtful.

So, by the end of the year, expect to see the Rupublicans down to six or seven while the Democrats hold steady at eight. By 14 February, both should be down to four a piece. That'll make everyone's lives a lot easier.

J'accuse!

Thu, 05 Jul 2007 02:41:15 GMT

(Cross posted to my personal account.)

I don't have cable. And I'm happy about this fact, believe me. But it does mean I'm always behind on my various cable based things, such as Keith Olbermann rants. Fortunately, my friend Mr. Klaus Flouride made me aware of his of yesterday. As usual, the gentleman almost certainly over estimates the intelligence of the American people. But his palpable disgust as he says "good night" makes the whole thing worth it.

Saddam Hussein's Kid for Lt. Governor

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 22:51:02 GMT

Hey hey kids. Yeah, yeah, I know, it's been a while since I did one of these. Real life and all that. Pshaw. First off, I'd like say:

Losers. Well, anyway, a few things are going on that I thought I'd like to reflect on a bit.

Wyoming Senate: The state GOP has picked their three candidates to replace the late Craig Thomas and it's really not worth it to go over any of them as they're all boring as hell. Rumor has it Freudenthal is going to pick the least electable of the three so that he can run in the special election of the same seat next year. While his running seems unlikely, picking a generally weak candidate is a probable course of action. Lummis is almost certainly out as she and Freudenthal hate each other, leaving the conservative Sansonetti and the slight less conservative Barrasso. I'm inclined to believe that the Governor will go for the latter. This means that next year both Senate seats and the At-Large House seat will be up in the state. Some seem to think that the fact that the junior senator will be extremely weak and that Barbara Cubin is pretty much despised by everyone means there is a chance here for a Democratic pickup. I would like to remind these people that this is Wyoming we're talking about.

Bloomberg: Mike Bloomberg has reactivated his campaign site. He has change his registration from Republican to Independent. (After first switching from Democrat to Republican to run for NYC mayor in the first place.) He is a billionaire. He's term limited. Gee, Davey, do you think he's going to try for an Indy presidential run? Why is he going to do such a silly thing I don't know but if he does it should make things rather interesting. Frankly, I don't see the *point* should Guiliani get the GOP nomination. We'll have our choice between an under experienced New York City mayor who's a Catholic or one who's a Jew? Really? Wow. If, however, that is the case, I still contend that *someone* from the right wing of the GOP is going to have to make a run; too many rank-and-file Republicans won't vote for Guiliani (because he's RINO to them) nor Romney (because he worships some bizarre cult gods to them). Regardless, if the GOP picks a moderate, a conservative will run on a third party or independent ticket; if the GOP picks a conservative, Bloomberg will have filled the centrist moderate slot. Likely VP candidates seem to be current Republican Sentor from Nebraska, Chuck Hegel, or former Democratic Senator from Oklahoma, Dave Boren. A New York Jew does need a little bit of heartland support. Speaking of presidential candidates...

McCain: You are fucked. Do you not understand this? You are fucked. Fucked fucked fucked fucked fucked. Sorry, I just needed to get my point across on this one. Everyone in your own state hates you now, sucking up to the Right accomplished nothing except getting rid of your independent identification, and in Iowa you're polling at 6%... BEHIND MIKE "READ THE BOOK OF GENESIS, YOU IDIOTS" HUCKABEE! You are tied with Brownback! You are not going to win. Leave now with your one remaining shred of dignity. Sheesh.

Gubernatorial: Man, what a great word. Anyway, it's a wash for both parties. Half the Republicans in the state won't vote for Ernie Fletcher anymore, so Steve Beshear is pretty much assured to win in Kentucky, swinging that state. Last I heard the Democrats are running a crate of decaying fish against Bobby Jindal in Louisiana. Marvelous thing these past few years to watch the Louisiana Democratic Party completely and utterly fall apart. So, count that as a Republican gain. John Eaves will get the Democratic nomination and hasn't a prayer against Haley Barbour in Mississippi. So, everyone breaks even.

Open House Seats: There are three open House seats right now and none of them are interesting at all. GA-10 has their special election yesterday. It'll need a run-off but it's obvious Jim Whitehead'll win. CA-37 and MA-5 are also up but are so boring I'm falling asleep as we speak.

Okay, I sleep now. Or work now. Or something.

Chillin' wit' Our Homeboy Sam...

Sun, 22 Apr 2007 17:59:59 GMT

Something about this just amused me. I'm sure it's the first time he's ever been called "cool"...

Okay, back to oblivion now.

They Do? Damn.

Sun, 25 Mar 2007 19:57:49 GMT

There are very few things that amuse me much right now. But this is one of them.

That is all.

I'm Not Going to Make a "Stark" Pun

Wed, 14 Mar 2007 01:58:00 GMT

Just a brief one as I was skimming through every major daily in the world in English, French, German, Pashto, and Tok Pisin. (What, you don't think I do? I will fight you!) Anyway, I read this article in the Guardian today. Yes, that's the guy from my old hometown, Fremont, or as we call it around here "The Christian South". He has basically become the first and only major political figure IN THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES to proclaim that he is a nontheist. Boo-yah! I'm not sure why he still identifies as Unitarian (All the great coupon offers printed by Unitarion (tm)?... okay, maybe one other human being on Earth gets that...) but whatever. I sort of figured it'd be Lantos, but, eh, this works too.

I find it amusing that I moved from a centrist town to the hotbed of disgusting liberal excess what with all our sodomy and welfare fraud and all, yet I went from an agnostic with the third most leftest voting record in the House to... well, Nancy Pelosi. Not that I have anything against her, of course. Just strikes me as funny. Despite the deeply religious nature of the district, however, I still get the feeling he'll be in office until he dies, thank G-d. (A-heh.) But it does mean that the opposition will be a whole lot louder next time around. It'll be nice to have a cantankerous election so nearby. Plus my mother will be glad since it'll give me an excuse to visit more often.

Pinko Commie French People

Sat, 18 Nov 2006 18:57:44 GMT

I would like to get international for just a moment, if I may. In actuality, more of my training lies there than in American politics. (Of course in actuality most of my training is theory, but that's neither here nor there.) Unlike most Americans, I've never really minded the French, at least no more than I've minded Americans. I've always seen the two countries as male siblings who were born too close together. Pretty much the same thing so they have to accentuate their differences as much as possible and they bicker a lot. Big whoop. Anyway, they got one of them big election things coming up next year in the spring and it looks like things have already taken shape candidate wise. As you can probably guess, I'm pretty much tired of the UMP which was granted a stay of execution in 2002 on the basis of Jospin getting whacked by the far left and Le Pen gaining support and getting blown by Brigitte Bardot. (Wow, I disgusted myself with that image...) Anyway, my point is that the time may finally be right for a Socialist swing in our sibling's midst, albeit a probably somewhat moderate one. That's fine with me. Hey, Prodi won last year in Italy! Anything can happen.

I will admit that I was supporting Dominique Strauss-Kahn but there's no point in lingering on the past. Ségolène Royal is the candidate and, quite frankly, she probably has a substantially better chance. The reasons for this are three-fold:

#1: The Babe Factor - I hate to bring this up, especially first, but it's undeniable. Ségolène Royal is Foxy McHotsalot. You may call this shallow, and of course it is, but I stand by my assertion that when in doubt, break for the hotter candidate. It worked in calling Stephanie Herseth in South Dakota two years ago. (Although she changed her hair in March and now all bets are off.) When I'm 53 I expect to be falling apart like a Trabant so maybe I'm just impressed. Anyway, my point is that Royal is hotter than Strauss-Kahn.

Je vous détruirai!

#2: The Sort-of-Not-a-Socialst Factor - Under normal circumstances Royal would not be the candidate, but a strange influx of new members to the Party got her nominated. It's sort of a strange reverse of the United States system; France is a de facto two party state with no real moderate party--although apparently the UDF are going to break with the UMP for the next election and try to become one--and moderates pretty much have to pick one or the other. Not to get Yavok Smirnoff-y about it, but it's odd that in France moderates have to join socialists whereas here the socialists have to join the moderates. Neither one of these make much sense to me. Anyway, my point is that Royal is about as unsocialist a Socialist Party candidate as you're going to get, especially with all the weird family values but pro-gay rights stuff. She likes Tony Blair for Christ sake!

#3: The Not-a-Jew Factor - Face it, like any leftist movement, the French Socialists have got a lot of Jews. Granted, Jospin was not one of them but he still lost, albeit for other reasons. However, Fabius is half Jewish, Strauss-Kahn is really, really Jewish and they were the other two front runners. I don't know who will elect a Jewish president first, the U.S. or France, but neither one are about to do it any time soon. So, she's got that going for her.

So I guess my point is that in six months I would very much like to see Royal lay the smack down and bring in a new Socialist government in France. In the years following the 9/11 attacks everyone got really defensive and xenophobic--well, okay, *more* than they were before--and I'm rather hoping that we're all done with that. If nothing else, the elections of the last few years have been less about the left-right spectrum and more about change. Elections in Spain, Italy, Germany, Canada, and even the recent U.S. one have pretty much been about "we're tired, let's try something else." And man, if people aren't tired of the UMP they aren't paying attention.

"So, You Boys Comin' from a Little Party?"

Wed, 08 Nov 2006 08:43:01 GMT

The subject line above comes from a question asked of me and my friend Mark one night many years ago when we were pulled over by the CHP near Monterey around 2am. It was all I could do not to respond: "Yes, sir, we're Libertarians!" Oh, I kill me, etc. Anyway, the actual party held at this location has wound down and now it's time to look over some of the rather surprising things that happened this election cycle, most of them pleasing and most of them involving me making more conservative predictions than I usually would have.

The Senate: I was really banking there was only about a 40% chance of the Democrats retaking the Senate, maybe less. Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia were the states at issue and I saw, at best, one maybe going to the Democrats and possibly none. How shocked--and elated--should I feel when I see Talent losing in Missouri and Webb pulling away from Allen far enough that a state-paid recount becomes less and less likely. I'm guessing that with this much on the line, there will still be a paid recount by the Republicans but assuming it doesn't overturn the results, the Democrats have the Senate by the barest of margins. (49-49 with the two Democrat leaning independents.) I would have much preferred this a few years ago when Bush was making his appointments, but better late than never. We'll see how stable this result actually is, however. Ford never had a chance in Tennessee those last few weeks.

Massive Democratic House Victory: Not all the results are in, especially in the West, but no matter how you cut it, the Democrats succeeded far more than I expected in the House. I was predicting a gain of 19 seats giving the Democrats a nine seat majority; as of current count they are at 24 and have by my reckoning the possibility of about eight more. Several seats, including PA-4 which I didn't even think was *that* competitive, swung over to the Democrats that I had not had called such as AZ-5, FL-22, KS-2(!), KY-3, MN-1, and WI-8. I have just this moment learnt that Dave Loesback ousted incumbent Republican Jim Leach in IA-2, another that I hadn't even thought *that* competitive. (So make that 25.) Only a few I called failed to live up, i.e. FL-13, IL-6, and possibly a few others in Ohio and other places that haven't been officially called yet. Assuming the Democrats can hang on to GA-8 and GA-12, which right now they are doing, but just barely, I'm expecting a Democratic pick up in the morning of about 30, leaving the make up at 233-202 in favour of the Democrats. Wow.

The Northeast: I called one turnover in New York and there were three. I said Shays would be the only loss in Connecticut and right now he looks like the only three of the Republicans who will win, but right now Simmons is within 200 votes in CT-2. I would never have guessed that New Hampshire would switch *both* its Representatives to Democrats. Very, very surprising.

California: I was expecting Angelides would lose and big time. Bowen is locked in a very close race with McPherson which is not completely surprising if for no other reason than incumbent lean. But the last numbers I saw had Garamendi and McClintock running pretty well even with the former but a point or two ahead. And Bustamante for Insurance Commissioner got smacked DOWN even worse than Angelides. I think Democratic voters are a) giving a little payback for the 2003 debacle and b) tired of seeing the same five names on the Democratic ticket moved around. The California Democrats need some new blood soon or they are surely in trouble. I'm not saying the state will be in play in 2008, heavens no... but I'm certainly starting to think it loudly. It all depends on the candidates, of course, but the Democrats are taking the state for granted now. They need to remember the horrid days of Wilson and snap back into action.

I sleep now!! Except to say... KANSAS!?

Half a Dozen of the Other

Wed, 01 Nov 2006 03:50:59 GMT

Well, I just finished a rather hellish midterm exam and thought I would celebrate by doing my Senate listings! On Halloween! Woo, party time! Ahem. Anyhoo...

Arizona: Pretty much what I remarked last time--Jim Pederson is running a substantially better campaign than I thought he would and it's going to be far closer than any contest John Kyl's ever had. But he still wins. (Republican)

Connecticut: Not that it actually matters for the Senate makeup, but Lieberman comes out ahead in Connecticut. They're still idiots for the whole thing happening in the first place, though. (Democrat/Independent)

Maryland: I like Ben Cardin. I like Ben Cardin a lot. He's a stand-up guy, he's knowledgeable, but man is he boring to most people. Republican Michael Steele, on the other hand, knows how to take pictures playing with dogs and hugging babies and what not. For Maryland, this race is much closer than it should be but Cardin will keep Sarbanes' seat Democratic. (Democrat)

Michigan: This was supposed to be competitive, but Bouchard's campaign never really picked up speed. Stabenow goes back. (Democrat)

Minnesota: I can't believe Mark Dayton really has anything better to do, but if he wants to retire, that's up to him. This one looked a lot closer months ago but lately DFL candidate Amy Klobucher seems in pretty good shape to make short work of Mark Kennedy. (Democrat)

Missouri: Finally, a really interesting one and I don't have the slightest clue how to call it. Well, for one thing, Jim Talent kind of looks like the Nazi from the first Indiana Jones movie. That sort of freaks me out, maybe that will influence others. Huh... yeesh. Missouri is always impossible to call. I'm being conservative this year so, I've got say, as close as it's been and as great a campaign as she's run, McCaskill can't win this one. (Republican)

Montana: This one I can do, though. Jon Tester may have the worst hair this side of Kim Jong Il, but Conrad Burns is missing a chromosome I think. Hopefully after this, he can finally officially become the doddering old man, wandering around the house in his boxers with a bottle of SoCo that he's always basically been anyway. (Democrat +1)

New Jersey: I don't know why, but I focus on the candidates physical appearance a lot. (See Missouri above.) Bob Menendez, for example, looks like a pudgy, hispanic version of human fetus Paul Williams. Just saying. He's also a primary symbol of New Jersey's future swing state status. The Democrats have been in power so long that their levels of corruption is high enough that even people in New Jersey can't stand it much anymore. By the same token, they seem to dislike Republicans a lot. It's quite a bind. And Tom Kean, or at least his daddy, is one of the better known and better like Republicans in the state. The race has been close, much closer than I think the DSCC thought it would be, and in the end Menendez will make it through. However, it's a sign of 2008 is going to look like when 15 EV's suddenly go up for grabs. (Democrat)

Ohio: A few months ago it was thought that Mike DeWine could avoid the anti-Republican movement that's going to define this year's election cycle for that state. Clearly, not so. In fact, really, really not so. I don't think DeWine has polled ahead of Sherrod Brown in a month. Two weeks ago the RNC decided to stop funding the DeWine campaign. Yup. (Democrat +1)

Pennsylvania: Nah nah nah nah, nah nah nah nah, HEY HEY HEY, GOODBYEEEEEEE!!! (Democrat +1

Rhode Island: That primary took a lot out of Linc Chafee and I don't think he ever recovered. He should have switched his party with Jeffords when he had the chance. (Democrat +1)

Tennessee: C'mon, everyone sing the song. So, it was lovely enough to have Frist gone, but the idea of an actual, possible pickup in Tennessee was almost too much to ask for. Nice as the dream is, I don't think it's going to work out. Harold Ford will just have to go back to a-banging away at the white womens instead. (Republican)

Virginia: Another one that was supposed to be safe until it turned out that the incumbent may well be inbred. Jim Webb was always a pretty good candidate, but it didn't really matter since George Allen seemed secure. Secure enough to be considering a Presidential run, even. Don't think he's going to pull that particular trick now. Sigh. And officially, we have to consider him a Jew, don't we? Great. Just great. The definition of "a shande far di goyim", I say. But that's neither here nor there. If there is a huge, huge turnout in Northern Virginia, Webb might be able to pull it off but, once again, the South shows its true colours. (Republican)

So, them's the breaks. A pick of four is rather conservative but it seems mostly likely. Of course, there is a possibility of Missouri, Tennessee, or maybe even Virginia breaking the other way, but I don't see it happening. (Of course, New Jersey could also go for Kean, but that also doesn't seem like it's going to happen.) 49-51 with no one really crossing party ranks means the Republicans can still get things through and if enough of these new Blue Dog Democrats start voting pretty conservatively, it seems likely that there won't be quite as much lame duckness abounding as people think. Shall have to a wait a see.

A few random developments: new poll number in Idaho and Wyoming of all places show vulnerable Republican held seats all of a sudden. Very, very strange. Also Duncan Hunter has announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination for President in 2008. If you're thinking "who?" don't feel so bad. I shall say that in U.S. history only one person has been elected to the Presidency directly from the House and Mr. Hunter, sir, you are no James A. Garfield.

My Kingdom for a House!

Sat, 28 Oct 2006 19:50:03 GMT

Well, Election Day fast approaches (PARTY TIME, BEEYATCHES!) and I suppose it's time I throw in my predictions which everyone can challenge at the Election Day party at my apartment I know all y'all are going to. Seriously. If anything radical changes I'll post addendums, but that not withstanding, here are my predictions for the 110th Congress.

AZ-1: The hell!? Rick Renzi, Republican incumbent at 46%, attorney and ALCU supporter 50%!? In AZ-1? Weird. Must be a fluke, but gotta have it up for completeness. (Republican)

AZ-5: Last poll numbers, incumbent Republican J.D. Hayworth at 48%, Democrat Harry Mitchell 45%. Hayworth has probably also just recently done a pretty good job of alienating the Jewish vote by sending representatives to a synagogue to say that Hayworth "is a more observant Jew" than those present. After three fourths of the crowd walked out, another Hayworth surrogate added "no wonder there are anti-Semites". Nice. (Republican)

AZ-8: Well, if it turns out Jim Kolbe was banging the boy pages as well, Randy Graf probably won't want his endorsement. Not that it matters, Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is still trouncing him. (Democrat +1)

CA-4: Right now John Doolittle is in "discussions" with the Justice Department over his connections with Abramoff. Still, the last poll numbers (52% to Brown's 44%) made it pretty clear that unless something really big happens, Doolittle looks secure. (Republican)

CA-11: Last polls I saw had Pombo (fucker... ahem...) at 41% to McNerney's 40%. This one is going to be extremely close but at this point I'm still erring on the side of how conservative the district is. (Republican)

CO-4: Musgrave is crazy but so's her district. They deserve each other. (Republican)

CO-5: Lamborn has pretty much over come the stigma developed from the primary campaign and will win with no problem. (Republican)

CO-7: O'Donnell is running in an evenly split district against an anti-Republican sentiment and still inching upward in the polls. Still, I don't think it will be enough by 7 November to deny Perlmutter victory. (Democrat +1)

CT-2: Incumbent Republican Simmons had 46% to Courtney's 44%. This one is going down to the wire but submarine bases and moronic Senate choices shall carry the day. (Republican)

CT-4: Shays says dumb stuff a lot. And Farrell has been squeaking ahead in the last two polls. But... Lamont. And the poll reports are recording that Lieberman's Independent run is knocking Democrats in districts 2, 4, and 5 down. I will, however, call for Farrell. (Democrat +1)

CT-5: Johnson is the most secure of the three vulnerable Republicans in Connecticut and despite a Democratic sponsored poll showing Murphy in the lead, it seems likely to be a fluke. (Republican)

FL-13: According to internal polling, Democrat Christine Jennings has increased her lead against Republican Vern Buchanan. Buchanan denies he's losing but won't release any of his own polls. Hmm. Plus, it's Florida. Based on how hated Katherine Harris is in her own district here, I will tentatively swing the other way here. (Democrat +1)

FL-16: Democrat Timothy Mahoney will serve exactly one term in Mark Foley's old district as a largely symbolic gesture toward the area's displeasure with the Republicans. It will revert in 2008. But, for now, it's a pick-up. (Democrat +1)

FL-22: New poll has Shaw 5% ahead of Klein. Not so large that a turn around isn't possible, but Shaw seems to keep surviving anyway. (Republican)

GA-8: Ah, the wacky land where Democrats are at risk. The only problem is that Georgia clearly hasn't invented the poll yet so I've got nothing to work with. For now, I'm inclined to side with the Democratic incumbents, even with the mid-decade redistricting. (Democrat)

GA-12: See above. Also, Max Burns crazy. (Democrat)

ID-1: Again, bwah!? Last poll numbers I saw were Sali at 49%, Grant at 43%. That is way, way too close for a Republican in Idaho. But, still, in any other circumstance, those numbers would unimpressive. It's just weird is all. (Republican)

IL-6: The last poll had Roskam leading Duckworth within the MoE and the previous one had the reverse with almost identical numbers. In the end, I think the GOP strategy of trying to paint a veteran with no legs as unpatriotic because she challenges the Bush Administration on Iraq will ultimately fail. (Democrat +1)

IL-8: Another rare vulnerable Democrat. Melissa Bean has been close but ahead of McSweeney in every poll I've seen. Scheurer might be a spoiler, but I'd be surprised. (Democrat)

IL-10: I wasn't going to include this one but the last poll I saw had incumbent Mark Kirk with Dan Seals in the MoE, 46% to 44%. Weird. Keep an eye on it, but it still looks more or less safe. (Republican)

IN-2: Except for a single internal Republican poll, Donnelly has been polling, sometimes by quite a bit, ahead of incumbent Republican Chocula. Guess he shouldn't have been feeding on the blood of his constituents all this time. (Democrat +1)

IN-7: For reasons no one can seem to understand, Democratic incumbent Julia Carson is polling slightly behind Eric Dickerson who is a political nobody. I suppose the fact that Carson is around two billion years old now could be a factor but, regardless, I don't think it will matter on Election Day. (Democrat)

IN-8: Ellsworth is destroying Hostettler. It would be incredibly surprising to see the incumbent jump back in two weeks. (Democrat +1)

IN-9: In the Sodrel/Hill rematch the former incumbent seems to have regained the advantage of national trends. Plus some very strange things are happening in Indiana, as can be seen above. (Democrat +1)

IA-1: Generally considered one of the likeliest Democratic pickups in the country, Zogby has Whalen ahead of Braley by 13 points. Weird. Still, everything else has said Braley is in front and Bush wasn't able to poll over 46% here in either 2000 or 2004. (Democrat +1)

KY-3: Northup is also seen as vulnerable but always wins. Yarmuth is a lousy candidate. No matter how close poll numbers are, I still say it'll break for the incumbent. (Republican)

KY-4: Lucas retired two years ago only to rerun when George Clooney's dad (really!) couldn't beat Geoff Davis in 2004. In short, basically both candidates are incumbents, but Davis has the edge. (Republican)

MI-9: Joe Knollenberg was statistically tied with Democratic challenger Nancy Skinner back in August, but I haven't heard anything since. My instinct says that if nothing else he has the money to beat back any opponent. (Republican)

MN-1: If the DNC had put money behind Walz earlier he might have had a shot, but at this point even though current polls show a statistical tie, I'm inclined to think Gutknecht gets a 7th term. (Republican)

MN-2: Opposite end of spectrum. Coleen Rowley's campaign got a lot of attention earlier this year but has since fallen into obscurity. (Republican)

MN-6: Argh. ARGH! Argh. Well, this is where the money is made, races exactly like this. Republican Michele Bachmann was in the lead consistently but by a small amount until the beginning of October. Since then, things have shifted around to Democrat and child safety advocate Patty Wetterling has been pulling ahead the last week or so. Some have commented that perhaps the Foley scandal made Wetterling look more attractive. I'm not so sure about that, but regardless... er... agony. Bachmann is far on the right, Wettering is far on the left (well, for Americans) and the district is moderate... I'm going Bachmann but it's up in the air. (Republican)

NH-2: People say Bass looks vulnerable. I really just don't see it. Even Barron's, which claims the Republicans can nominally hold on to both chambers and whose staff is apparently also well-known for sitting in the hallway eating paint chips, says Hodes will pull ahead in the end. Am I just stupid? (Republican)

NJ-7: A RoboPoll had this one at a statistical tie a few weeks ago. Since then I haven't heard much. Ferguson usually wins pretty big, but Stender's running a good campaign. In that I think that just means Ferguson won't win with such a large margin. (Republican)

NV-2: Derby is running better than she should be, but not well enough for it to make a difference. This of course assumes Republican Dean Heller isn't planning to go around raping single moms in parking lots too. But this election cycle, it's hard to tell. (Republican)

NM-1: Like Bachmann in MI-6, incumbent Republican Heather Wilson was consistently if narrowly ahead until early October. Since then Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid has not just been in the lead, but far in the lead. Wilson has been seen as a target the last three elections and the DNC may finally have gotten her. (Democrat +1)

NY-19: Just a hint in case any of you actually want to do this yourselves one day--never trust MajorityWatch polls. Just don't do it, there's no point. Kelly won two years ago with 67% of the vote. Even this year the numbers coming back that have her behind Democrat (and Orleans band member!) John Hall 40% to 49% respectively seems a bit... yeah. Still, I can't say I'd mind being wrong. (Republican)

NY-20: Again, a close district by MajorityWatch has it at 54% to 41% with Democratic challenger Gillibrand ahead of John Sweeney. That seems unlikely, especially since a Siena poll a few days later had Sweeney ahead 53% to 39%. Yeah. Let's just split the different and call it for Sweeney. (Republican)

NY-24: Yeesh, another one of these! MajorityWatch has Democrat Michael Arcuri way ahead of Republican Raymond Meier for Sheery Boehlert's old seat. That is no way that is right. However, Arcuri will still pick it up. (Democrat +1)

NY-25: No one has heard of Dan Maffei. A Democrat has not represented this district since 1971. James Walsh is fine. (Republican)

NY-26: People keep calling Reynolds vulnerable on the Foley stuff, but frankly I haven't seen it come to fruition, at least not yet. Watch it closes but unless something really big breaks, expect Reynolds to make it through. (Republican)

NY-29: Freshman Congressman Randy Kuhl is certainly vulnerable and Democrat Eric Massa, a friend of Wesley Clark, is certainly a good candidate. It may yet be enough, but at the moment I wouldn't say it is. (Republican)

NC-11: Okay, so, football players aren't generally my favourite people in the world. (There have been exceptions, but still.) It might be close in the end, but ex-NFL Quarterback Heath Chuler will defeat Republican incumbent Charles Taylor and his fine shoes. (Democrat +1)

OH-1: Notes from the former Democrat graveyard. With a recent visit from President Clinton and Republican incumbent who has refused to release internal polls in months, save something strange John Cranley will be taking Cincinnati. (Democrat +1)

OH-2: Possibly the most repugnant woman in the House now that Katherine Harris is leaving, this one gets to go back to Washington. I suppose someone needs to represent the Sea-Harpy vote. (Republican)

OH-6: Democrat Charlie Wilson freaking *forgot* to file 50 signatures to make it on the primary ballot and had to wage a write-in campaign and still got 67% of the vote. This district is marginal, previously represented by Ohio's next governor Democrat Ted Strickland, but it seems the NRCC pull its money of this district. Someone's giving up. (Democrat)

OH-15: This is another one that could literally go either way until the polls close. Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce has been fairly popular and is about as centrist as a politician gets nowadays. However, she acknowledges that a combination of Bush's approval ratings, an anti-Republican incumbent sentiment nation-wide and the Republican leadership scandals (many, many I tell you) but her in a disadvantageous position. Ad to that the fact the Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy is the most credible opponent she's possibly ever faced and you have a race. As I say, it is very, very close but I'm inclined to fall on the side of the incumbent. Were Pryce a bit more conservative she wouldn't fly, but I think she's just centrist enough to pull enough votes together. (Republican)

OH-18: I think Bob Ney and William Jefferson ought to have a no-holds-barred steel cage match. Fer serious. Just for kicks. Anyway, Ney--who pretty much screwed his party by waiting for the last possibly second to withdraw--was already trailing Democratic challenger Zack Space and things have just gone down since then for Ney's successor Joy Padgett. (Democrat +1)

PA-4: Along with Indiana, the big state of the year. Democrats are pumping the money of Croesus in the Philadelphia suburbs and hoping for some kind of payoff. However, this district in the suburbs of Pittsburgh has a little known Democratic candidate, Jason Almire, giving an incredibly powerful and well-known Republican incumbent, Melissa Hart whose witch status is unknown to me, a surprisingly difficult campaign. Things do not bode well for the GOP in Pennsylvania, although in the end in this case Hart will probably survive. (Republican)

PA-6: One of the aforementioned Philly suburb districts, recent poll numbers inclined slightly toward Democratic challenger Lois Murphy against incumbent Jim Gerlach, a somewhat moderate Republican. A high voter-turnout is expected because of some local issues which is likely give an advantage to Murphy. (Democrat +1)

PA-7: Sometimes to hear Curt Weldon talk is like reading one of those random thoughts columns by Larry King. However, people keep voting for him because he crushes motorcycle gangs and threatens people in Russian. Yes, I made that sound sort of weird for comedic reasons, but both those statements are true. Anyway, this year his daughter, his partners, and possibly his Rottweiler, I'm not sure, are stuck in tons and tons of federal investigations for fraud, corruption, who knows what else. That at former Admiral Joe Sestak is running a helluva campaign. До свидания. (Democrat +1)

PA-8: Again, incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick is... kind of strange. And Democrat Patrick Murphy is a good candidate but I think in this case without a corruption scandal or other extenuating circumstances, Fitzpatrick can hold on. Still, two of three seats is a pretty good pick up. (Republican)

PA-10: Normally there is no reason why Don Sherwood should be having problems in his very social conservative district. However, if the reason you're in the news in your district over the previous year is because you had to pay off a woman with whom you were having an affair and that you may or may not have beat the hell out of, you can see how this would have a negative effect in your social conservative district. A nobody pulled 44% in the Republican primary. Democratic challenger, professor and Naval Reservist Chris Carney, was eight points ahead in the last poll. (Democrat +1)

TX-17: The only surviver of 2004's Texas Five, Democrat Chet Edwards faces in uphill election what with the fact that he's in, y'know, Texas and all but in the end he will likely prevail for another term. (Democrat)

TX-22: Ha! Oh, what a mess the Republicans were able to make here. DeLay is gone, the Republicans have to depend on a write-in candidate and former congressman Nick Lampson, another of the Texas Five who was not so lucky in 2004, found himself in Delay's district what with the 27th mid-decade redistricting in Texas since 2000. I exaggerate a bit perhaps. Hope he kept his apartment in Washington. (Democrat +1)

TX-23: A confusing quagmire of a district. After several years the Texas Supreme Court suddenly realized "Hey! Maybe, in all this redistricting that's been going on, some of it might be illegal!" So they looked and--lo and behold!--it was! So, TX-23 is now all screwed. Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla was supposed to have an easy reelection but now he's facing at least 5 Democratic challengers in a rather strange election. If Bonilla can't get above 50% in November, which he won't, he has to face the top Democrat. However, it seems likely he'll come out ahead on that one. (Republican)

VA-2: Thelma Drake run in 2004 to cover for the withdrawl of former Naval officer and possible Judy Garland fan Ed Schrock, winning 55% of thie vote. This year she faces the region's most popular Democrat, Philip Kellam. Polls are statistically tied but, still, this is Virginia and I'm willing to give Drake the benefit of the doubt. (Republican)

WA-8: Washington seems like a good place for a Democratic turnover and Darcy Burner is running a well-funded and effecient campaign, but the district has been Republican since, well... since the last major party turnover in '94 and right now it's close but Freshman Representative Dave Reichert can probably fight off the spirited competition. (Republican)

WI-8: Mark Green left to run for governor and his partly rural district containing Green Bay elected a Democratic representative as recently as 1996. It seems like a good place for a turnover. However, I haven't seen anything which would lead me to believe that it will happen. But, the next week shall tell. (Republican)

So, those the big ones as I see it. As I say, who knows what will happen in the next week. For those not keeping score while reading, that's 19 Democratic pickups, leading to House composition of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. Not exactly a commanding majority for the Democrats, but enough to keep the Bush administration in check on enough issues of national import to essentially bring the country to a standstill for two years. Whoopie. You know your nation is on the decline when the best you can hope for it two years of pointless fighting. Please note, I'd like to think I was fairly conservative in my predictions. I am not adverse nor would I be surprised by 1994 style turnout with the Democrats dominating both chambers with a vengeance. To find out, you should come for my apartment 7 November for the drunken Election Day festivities. There shall be a large board where we keep track as results come in and you can mock me for my failed predictions. Oh, what a glorious day that shall be!

Coming up next, the hopefully shorter to write Senate entry!

North Korea is DA BOMB!

Mon, 09 Oct 2006 07:32:38 GMT

Or at least it was something like that. Might have screwed up a verb. Anyway, yup. Don't you love it when the world gets a little more scary? Oh, it's great! Well, I'm going to watch The Prisoner and feel like a kid again... by having nightmares about nuclear war and borderline retarded chief executives in charge of the most powerful nation in the world. Yay!