Waiting for the IM Involving Cigars
Well. Huh. That done went and changed everything, didn't it? I suppose it's only been a week, but the Foley fall out has been surprisingly fast and I'm dying to get some new polls numbers in over the next week. Even before that, however, I was getting ready to post about the midterms as we sit less than a month away. (Woo! Party at my place, 7 November! No, really, I'm not kidding...) And, since today is gray and dreary and none of my real work looks appealing right now (NOTE: This part was written a few days ago when it was actually gray and dreary) and I need to stay busy to hold back the depression that comes with not doing anything, I figured I'd go over the poll numbers and make a post. You were all just waiting, I'm sure.

AZ-8: Randy Graf is a poster child for how the Far Right, Club for Growth Republicans will (hopefully) blow things for the national party this November. Retiring Jim Kolbe was a moderate Republican who, despite being outed in 1996, continued to be elected in a district with a very slight Republican edge. He had a hand picked successor in his former campaign manager Steve Huffman who would probably be cursing to an easy election right now had not Kolbe's erstwhile conservative primary nemesis, the aforementioned Graf, win the primary. Kolbe has refused to endorse Graf and the Democratic candidate Gabreille Giffords--perhaps benefiting from not being insane--was last tracked out polling Graf 48% to 36%. The district should have stayed Republican but by selecting a candidate from the fringes--which was unimportant in 2004, but rather stupid now--a moderate Democrat can take the seat. Democratic Pickup

CA-4: John Doolittle is just not having a good year. It's not a good year for Republicans in general and ones deep in the mire that is Abramoff connections are even worse off. Retired Air Force Lt. Colonel Charles Brown--who I'm sure never gets teased for his name because he could kill you five ways before you hit the floor, at least if it involves missiles--was polling at a dead heat a week ago. Doolittle's people say they're not worried, although a visit to the area by Bush for both him and Richard Pombo (see below) speaks otherwise. Last week I would have not come out strongly but said that it seemed likely that Doolittle would survive the election. With Foley now,the fallout from which is still uncertain, I might revise in a week. Republican

CA-11: Richard Pombo's a fucker. I don't generally like using language like that in this forum, but he is a fucker, there's not a better way to say it. If you don't know why, you can study it yourself. Point is, he should be having a much easier time at this reelection but, like Doolittle, various things are causing problems. An internal poll by Democratic candidate Jerry NcNerney--a political nobody--showed him in statistical dead heat with Pombo, 48% to 46%. Pombo (which I'm learning is more fun to say than type) claims all their internal polls show that McNerney never breaks 30%, although they won't release said polls. Same deal as with Doolittle, although I'm more inclined to think Pombo has a better shot at hanging on. Republican.

CO-4: Marilyn Musgrave is insane, although that doesn't really seem to matter in her extremely Republican district. Colorado has a lot of those. However, the last poll numbers I saw had her barely ahead of Democratic candidate Angie Paccione, 46% to 42%. Given the mood of the country as well as recent events, she's not as solid as she once was. Republican

CO-5: Doug Lamborn ran such a nasty campaign that so far none of his primary competitors or the retiring Joel Hefley will endorse him. Add to this the most recent, but still month old, poll claiming Democrat (another U.S.A.F. Lt. Col, what's up with this?) Jay Fawcett is polling ahead 41% to 28%. Very, very strange for a district that's over half Republican with Democrats and Independents splitting the rest. This is probably just a temporary condition following the primary. By election day, everyone will be swinging back Republican. Not that I'd *mind* a pick up in CO-5, it just seems unlikely. Republican

CO-7: The Democrats should have picked this up in both 2002 and 2004 but various stupid things went wrong. Also Bob Beauprez seemed to have the upper echelons of the NRCC and the White House at his beck and call to stump for him. However, he's now running for Governor (an election he will lose, but more on that later) and with the current mood of the district--evenly split as it is between Democrats, Republicans, and Independents--against incumbents, Democrat Ed Perlmutter has been consistently polling with a double digit lead over Republican Rick O'Donnell. This election and 2004 are pointing the way to Colorado's upcoming swing state status in the 2008 Presidential Election. With the pick up of a Congressional District and Senate seat two years ago, and the Governorship at least one and possibly up to three Congressional seat, the move toward battleground is near complete. While I'm sticking with staying Republican for CO-4 and 5 at this moment, if fallout from Foley is sever and Bill Ritter, the conservative Democrat who will soon be governor, leads a massively successful ticket, I may change my mind in a week or two.Democratic Pickup

CT-2: Stupid bastards. Anyway, I've done that already. Rob Simmons is vulnerable every single time he runs. And yet he still wins. Why? Because last year he successfully fought to reverse the decision to close the New London submarine base. That's it. Other than that his election makes no sense. But, oddly enough, it's probably enough to get him through. Joe Courtney is running as the Democrat again and while it will be much, much closer than the 54%-46% Simmons got the last two elections, it seems likely he will survive yet again. Republican

CT-4: This one is trickier. Until a few days ago the last poll I saw had incumbent Republican Chris Shays ahead of Democrat Diane Farrell by 49% to 42%. Not bad for his district. Now the new Zogby poll--and I have my own issues with the accuracy of Zogby polls--has Shays behind 46% to 41%. More shift in the national mood? Statistical oddity? I'm not sure yet but I'm not ready to revise quite yet. Next week, especially if there's another poll, we'll talk. Republican

CT-5: Just something that's always bothered me: why does a state with more Democrats than Republicans in all five congressional districts have more Republicans than Democrats in the House? Just always baffles me. Still, voted for Ned Lamont. Let's move on. Nancy Johnson, again as always, is vulnerable but not nearly as much as the other two. Last poll numbers I saw had her five points ahead of Democrat Chris Murphy and of the three Republican House members, she seems most likely to hang on. Republican

FL-13: Katherine Harris' old district and since neither of the candidates look like a demented sea harpy, they sadly cannot use that to their advantage. I'm working on very, very iffy poll numbers, but last I saw Democrat Christine Jennings--who a few days ago was being sold as the Messiah or something on the DNC's webpage--was polling 46% to Republican Vern Buchanan's 38%. How stable this is, I don't know. I would be inclined because of the make up of the district to say this is an anomaly and that in the end it will break Republican, but here's hoping for another poll soon. Republican

FL-16: Ah, ha ha. Ground Zero. Indeed. I trust I don't need to go into details here. Suffice it to say, it now seems pretty damned assured that Democrat Timothy Mahoney will get what will probably be a single term in the House of the deal. When even the Republicans don't think people will be able to stomach voting for Negron under the name of Foley, one can see that they've pretty much given up hope. A brief side note: am I the only one who thinks Foley looks like Larry Flint? Yes? Okay, I thought so. Democratic Pickup

FL-22: Clay Shaw is another one those Republicans who always seems be vulnerable and yet always seems to win anyway. This time, however, he's old and dying. The last poll had the in a statistical dead heat and Ron Klein still has quite a bit of money left for the last month. Again, I might go out on a limb later, but at this point Shaw is still the favourite, even if he did shoot President Kennedy. But I kid Southerners with lung cancer. Republican

GA-8: Ahh, the flip side. Even in this national climate, there are vulnerable Democrats. That's why God made the South. Jim Marshall had an easy enough time getting reelected in 2004 but mid-decade redistricting--ain't that stuff a blast?--has made his district much more Republican. To make matters more difficult, his opponent is former Congressman Mac Collins who, because of a primary run for the Senate nomination two years ago, has high name recognition and also has his former political base, Butts County, in GA-8. Republicans are hoping that the anti-incumbent mood around the country does not just apply to the GOP but has a sort of "a pox upon both your houses!" mentality. Maybe, but this seems unlikely at this point and Marshall seems likely to survive. Democratic

GA-12: Max Burns was not supposed to win the 2002 election. The district was drawn for a Democrat and he's quite the conservative. The Democratic candidate, however, roundly sucked so what should not have happened happened. (The Republican Sweep in Georgia in 2002 probably didn't hurt either.) In 2004 sanity was restored when Democrat John Barrow defeated Burns 52% to 48% but now it's pay back time or something. Also, like GA-8, the district has been drawn more Republican in the last two years. The last poll conducted showed a statistic tie, but this was months ago and so very little can be said on that front. It seems likely to me that despite the fact that some people didn't pay attention and actually think *Burns* is the incumbent (Americans are kind of stupid if you didn't notice) Barrows should end up fine in the end. Democratic

ID-1: Yes, I know what you're thinking and I'm thinking it too--the hell? Regardless, something really strange happening. Please cf. AZ-8. The Republican nominee, Bill Sali... is crazy. Certifiable. He may claim that there's a link between abortions and breast cancer, but there's certainly no link between his brain and the rest of existence. So why did he get the nomination? Because Republican voters have gone insane and too many moderates running split the sane votes. Even the Idaho Republican Party is scared of him. At an August fundraiser attended by Cheney, only three of the 104 Idaho legislators bothered to show up in support. Still, he's crazy. So what? It's IDAHO, it's not like Democrat Larry Grant has a chance, right? Right? Well. Huh. A July polls showed that Sali was ahead of Grant, 41% to 25%. A September poll showed Grant at 22%... and Sali at 14%. With 61% undecided. Very, very strange. Still, strange does not win elections and, quite frankly, it's not a bad argument to say "This. Is. IDAHO." Republican

IL-6: Speaking of people the DNC are selling as the Messiah... this year Henry Hyde finally retired after over 30 years in the House and actually having been dead since 1997 as near as I can tell. To replace him Republican leaders settled on Peter Roskam and avoided a nasty primary. The Democrat were not so lucky but eventually Tammy Duckworth--apparently a sort of female Max Cleland--wound up the nominee. This is probably for the best for the Democrats as Christine Cegelis would not have fared as well. As it is, things look iffy, but the amount of money poured in by the DNC makes it likely that they'll get a pay back. Democratic Pickup

IL-8: The second Melissa Bean defeated another 30+ year Republican Congressman who died in the late 90s--in this case, Phil Crane--she was targeted by the NRCC. The candidacy of independent Bill Scheurer, running a more liberal campaign and garnering some labor union endorsements, further complicates issues. A recent internal poll showed Bean with a massive lead though this seems highly unlikely. However, she'll ultimately come thought. Democratic

IN-2: Well... I can't begin to explain this but Indiana went crazy. Buyer's remorse from "My Man Mitch"? Just the general mood of the country. I don't know, but if one wishes to consider Indiana bellwether then things are looking might up for the Democrats. First is ID-2 where the, again, often vulnerable Republican Chris (or as I like to call him, Count) Chocola is being demolished in polls by Democrat and 2004 nominee Joe Donnelly. Double digits. I have not seen one poll where he's pulling ahead. Well then. Democratic Pickup

IN-8: Another weak Republican, John Hostettler is a six-term incumbent who, in 1994 during the massive Republican sweep, defeated a six-term Democratic incumbent. So, karma much? A suspect poll from late September has Democrat Brad Ellsworth 15 points ahead of Hostettler. While probably not wholly accurate, there does seem to be a growing consensus that 12 years was plenty of time for a Contract With America. Democratic Pickup

IN-9: In 2004 Republican Mike Sodrel barely defeated incumbent Baron Hill who never left Washington and made it rather clear that he intended to run again. Two years later, like in ID-2, not a single poll has shown Sodrel ahead. As I say, I'm not sure what's going on in Indiana, but I think people are pissed. Democratic Pickup

I have grown tired and the list is very long. Perhaps Tuesday if I get a chance I can finish the House and move on to the Senate. Yay!