Well, I just finished a rather hellish midterm exam and thought I would celebrate by doing my Senate listings! On Halloween! Woo, party time! Ahem. Anyhoo...

Arizona: Pretty much what I remarked last time--Jim Pederson is running a substantially better campaign than I thought he would and it's going to be far closer than any contest John Kyl's ever had. But he still wins. (Republican)

Connecticut: Not that it actually matters for the Senate makeup, but Lieberman comes out ahead in Connecticut. They're still idiots for the whole thing happening in the first place, though. (Democrat/Independent)

Maryland: I like Ben Cardin. I like Ben Cardin a lot. He's a stand-up guy, he's knowledgeable, but man is he boring to most people. Republican Michael Steele, on the other hand, knows how to take pictures playing with dogs and hugging babies and what not. For Maryland, this race is much closer than it should be but Cardin will keep Sarbanes' seat Democratic. (Democrat)

Michigan: This was supposed to be competitive, but Bouchard's campaign never really picked up speed. Stabenow goes back. (Democrat)

Minnesota: I can't believe Mark Dayton really has anything better to do, but if he wants to retire, that's up to him. This one looked a lot closer months ago but lately DFL candidate Amy Klobucher seems in pretty good shape to make short work of Mark Kennedy. (Democrat)

Missouri: Finally, a really interesting one and I don't have the slightest clue how to call it. Well, for one thing, Jim Talent kind of looks like the Nazi from the first Indiana Jones movie. That sort of freaks me out, maybe that will influence others. Huh... yeesh. Missouri is always impossible to call. I'm being conservative this year so, I've got say, as close as it's been and as great a campaign as she's run, McCaskill can't win this one. (Republican)

Montana: This one I can do, though. Jon Tester may have the worst hair this side of Kim Jong Il, but Conrad Burns is missing a chromosome I think. Hopefully after this, he can finally officially become the doddering old man, wandering around the house in his boxers with a bottle of SoCo that he's always basically been anyway. (Democrat +1)

New Jersey: I don't know why, but I focus on the candidates physical appearance a lot. (See Missouri above.) Bob Menendez, for example, looks like a pudgy, hispanic version of human fetus Paul Williams. Just saying. He's also a primary symbol of New Jersey's future swing state status. The Democrats have been in power so long that their levels of corruption is high enough that even people in New Jersey can't stand it much anymore. By the same token, they seem to dislike Republicans a lot. It's quite a bind. And Tom Kean, or at least his daddy, is one of the better known and better like Republicans in the state. The race has been close, much closer than I think the DSCC thought it would be, and in the end Menendez will make it through. However, it's a sign of 2008 is going to look like when 15 EV's suddenly go up for grabs. (Democrat)

Ohio: A few months ago it was thought that Mike DeWine could avoid the anti-Republican movement that's going to define this year's election cycle for that state. Clearly, not so. In fact, really, really not so. I don't think DeWine has polled ahead of Sherrod Brown in a month. Two weeks ago the RNC decided to stop funding the DeWine campaign. Yup. (Democrat +1)

Pennsylvania: Nah nah nah nah, nah nah nah nah, HEY HEY HEY, GOODBYEEEEEEE!!! (Democrat +1

Rhode Island: That primary took a lot out of Linc Chafee and I don't think he ever recovered. He should have switched his party with Jeffords when he had the chance. (Democrat +1)

Tennessee: C'mon, everyone sing the song. So, it was lovely enough to have Frist gone, but the idea of an actual, possible pickup in Tennessee was almost too much to ask for. Nice as the dream is, I don't think it's going to work out. Harold Ford will just have to go back to a-banging away at the white womens instead. (Republican)

Virginia: Another one that was supposed to be safe until it turned out that the incumbent may well be inbred. Jim Webb was always a pretty good candidate, but it didn't really matter since George Allen seemed secure. Secure enough to be considering a Presidential run, even. Don't think he's going to pull that particular trick now. Sigh. And officially, we have to consider him a Jew, don't we? Great. Just great. The definition of "a shande far di goyim", I say. But that's neither here nor there. If there is a huge, huge turnout in Northern Virginia, Webb might be able to pull it off but, once again, the South shows its true colours. (Republican)

So, them's the breaks. A pick of four is rather conservative but it seems mostly likely. Of course, there is a possibility of Missouri, Tennessee, or maybe even Virginia breaking the other way, but I don't see it happening. (Of course, New Jersey could also go for Kean, but that also doesn't seem like it's going to happen.) 49-51 with no one really crossing party ranks means the Republicans can still get things through and if enough of these new Blue Dog Democrats start voting pretty conservatively, it seems likely that there won't be quite as much lame duckness abounding as people think. Shall have to a wait a see.

A few random developments: new poll number in Idaho and Wyoming of all places show vulnerable Republican held seats all of a sudden. Very, very strange. Also Duncan Hunter has announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination for President in 2008. If you're thinking "who?" don't feel so bad. I shall say that in U.S. history only one person has been elected to the Presidency directly from the House and Mr. Hunter, sir, you are no James A. Garfield.